An Iraqi Charade...
At first I was torn between writing this post on the Iraqi charade that is due to take place on the 30th of June 09, torn between that and that of writing an equally important post on the current Iranian charade...
But I have learned to get my priorities right and since both are very much interlinked, I will start with the most important one - Iraq.
There are HUGE misconceptions surrounding U.S troop withdrawal on the 30th of June.
Both Iraqi and American/Western media are using the term withdrawal.
This is a propaganda spin and I need the reader to become very aware of the usage of words. There is NO American withdrawal from Iraqi cities.
What there is, is a pull back to the 15 or so American bases AND in parallel a redeployment of American troops on the edges of the cities.
The official Iraqi version wants us to believe that this is victory.
Suddenly the official language of PM Al-Maliki, is full of patriotism with statements like "This is the end of violence and sectarianism in Iraq".
This is BULLSHIT, because only today there has been a massive campaign of arbitrary arrests in two neighborhoods - Adhamyia (sunni) and Shula'a. (I dont know what Shula'a is anymore. It used to be mixed.)
The Iraqi puppet government went as far as declaring 30th of June a national public holiday - the day of victory.
Victory over whom exactly ?
The Americans are not leaving Iraq, they are just pulling back to their bases and redeploying on the outskirts. In the Nineveh province they are staying put. This means there is no pull back. So please stop believing this term withdrawal because it does NOT exist and it is very misleading. This is a ploy to confuse the layperson and make believe that Iraq is now a success case - an American success.
There are other aspects that you need to consider too, and frankly I cannot do all the thinking for the reader. He/she must really use common sense.
Even if the American troops definitely pull out of Iraq, out of the country, in the year 2011 or 2012, I can no longer remember the exact date. Do you really believe they will pack their bases and Embassy and just go ?
There are over 15 American, fully equipped, military bases in Iraq. These are not going to be dismantled, not on the 30th of June nor in 2011/12. As I said, common sense is needed here.
The other thing the reader must be acutely aware of when reading mainstream propaganda about the Iraqi police and army taking over the cities.
There is something very basic that is eluding everyone here - the Iraqi army does NOT have one naval ship, not one fighter jet...
What does that tell you ?
It tells you that this Army will never be able to defend Iraq against ANY future EXTERNAL aggression from any country - in particular Iran.
That means in effect that Iraq will remain a U.S / Iranian colony...until...until God knows what, until the nuclear dossier is settled, until the peace talks with Israel are fully underway between Iraq/Iran and Israel, until the Resistance gets a move, until...This is open to much speculation and depends on the developments within Iran and between Iran, the US, Europe and Israel...
What it means in effect, for the Iraqis, is that Iraq has LOST all claims to Sovereignty. And will become a partitioned version of some Hong Kong. A trade route that happens to have the biggest oil reserve in the world.
The other thing the reader needs to be very aware of is that -- according to the "Iraqi constitution", the American-Iraqi security agreement cannot be put into effect until a national referendum takes place i.e until the Iraqi people vote on it.
However, what we have been witnessing so far is the application of the security agreement, which is not even ratified and agreed upon, and the selling of the first phase of this security agreement i.e the pulling back to bases of the U.S troops as some Iraqi victory.
The coming week(s) will be crucial for Iraq. If the current puppet government fails in its reconciliation and national consensus, then the paving of the way for militias to take over again is highly probable and we will be witnessing another round of sectarian violence that will finish off any resisting elements...
Seeing the sectarian nature of the puppet government and seeing the high level of internal conflicts and interests within the sectarian groups and parties themselves, and seeing the monumental level of corruption, it is highly unlikely that the government of Nouri Al-Maliki will achieve much beyond the marketing of its current victory rhetoric.
Another important factor is to take into account what developments are taking and will take place in Iran. Iran is very good at exporting its internal conflicts to Iraq. We already witnessed such a conflict when the sectarian government of Nouri Al-Maliki had a "victory" on the equally deadly sectarian movement of Muqtada Al-Sadr and its Jaysh Al-Mahdi militia. It was thanks to direct Iranian intervention that things calmed down on that front.
I expect a similar move from Iran in the coming days/weeks, in exporting its own internal conflicts to Iraq -- by reactivating the sleeping militias - which really never slept. And I expect the Americans and their intelligence services to do exactly the same.
So do not be surprised if you hear that they caught and killed Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi of Al-Qaeda for the 100th time or any of the Al-Qaeda terrorists, that seem to spring up whenever sorely needed...
In other words, don't fall for it because it's a fucking joke. Except it was never funny. But for jokes to work in a charade, it requires credulous people.
And I sure hope you have learned better by now...
OK, enough. I need to go and sleep. Nite, Nite.
P.S : Forgot to mention, one brave boy and his humvee bid their farewells today, in Iraq.