March 4, 2010

The Iraqi Impasse...

Tried to get an early night sleep, to no avail...kept twisting and turning in my bed...so here I am again, at this desk...

Been watching a few videos from lousy Al-Jazeera English, suddenly Al-Jazeera online remembered that Iraq existed and send a few of its reporters who are now blogging on the Iraqi elections...a last minute jump on the bandwagon, so to speak...

The videos were about the supporters for the Iraqiya bloc, Iyad Allawi...I knew for a fact that Iyad Allawi hates sharing power with anyone, so besides the dirtiness of A.Chalabi and his best friend Al-Lami, I have a feeling that Iyad Allawi had also something to do with barring Al-Mutlaq or at least facilitating his departure...

I don't trust Iyad Allawi one bit. He too was with the Chalabi - Hakeem crowd in the US, and also played a role in welcoming the American invasion and occupation. And it was under his interim rule that the burning with napalm of Falluja and its people took place, by orders of the despicable American, Bremmer. This merited Allawi the nickname of Butcher of Fallujah...I am not sure one can easily forget that nickname of his...I personally can't...

Having said that, one entertains a very flimsy hope, that maybe, just maybe the secularists will win, a question of the best of the two evils...as the Shiite parties and their followers proved to be nothing but a bunch of sectarian, deranged, blood thirsty,  highly corrupt thieves and criminal psychopaths doing Iran's dirty work...And having witnessed what they were and are capable of, I would ally with the devil and not with Iran...

Again, I feel kind of sorry for those Iraqis rallying in support for Al-Iraqiya.Bloc..I feel sorry for them because they have high hopes...

And whatever the elections results, it does not forbear good news...

If the secularists "nationalists" win,  I tell you -- the Shiite parties and their deranged psychotic followers will never back down...as we have a proverb in Iraqi that says "Ajmee wi chalab bi shubak al Kadhem"---meaning an Ajmee, an Iranian holding tight to a window of Kadhem's shrine. (Imam Khadhem is a Shiite saint). In other words, they will not let go...

Furthermore, analysts who have been observing the Iraqi scene, missed out on several crucial points :

a) if the Secularists do win, the Iraqi armed forces (police, army, special groups) are ALL heavily infiltrated by the Shiite militias. In other words they have the arms and they are the ones who control "order"...

b) it is NOT in the interests of the Kurds to have a secularist nationalist coalition win because such a coalition's ideology does mention again and again the UNITY of Iraq, i.e meaning that the Kurdish separatist long term plan of having a totally independent Kurdistan will be hampered/curtailed by such a majority win.

c) and while America, lousy, debased America wants to have some seeming sense of success in Iraq, it too does not wish to push for a secularist nationalist alliance for several reasons 1) nationalism is not America's preferred word when it comes to Arabs 2) it would still want to safeguard the privatization of oil
3) it would need to re-write the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) snatching for itself more guarantees for the future 4) it also wishes to pacify Iran in the long run and a huge defeat for Iran's proxies in Iraq like the Shiite parties may not be a good long term option and 4) there is Israel and the Kurdish question and a nationalistic type government (with all its limitations) is not something favored by Israel either...

d) in case of fraudulent irregularities, which will definitely take place and I see that happening mainly in the Shiite controlled areas like the South and with the refugees voting ballots which are controlled by the Iraqi government, and in case of a win by the Shiite parties, then that too will prove to be a disaster for Iraq, spinning it into another bloody round of violence...albeit bloodier..

But I do see winners in this game...the winners are all those who absolutely need to see a forever handicapped, crippled, Iraq.